![]() “It’s a combination we haven’t really seen before in the modern era, and it’s a bit difficult to say what it might mean in the months to come.” ![]() “We’re hurtling toward a potentially strong El Niño event following a rare triple-dip La Niña event amid a period of record oceanic warmth driven by climate change,” Swain said. “So in some ways this year is a year with no reasonable historical analogues,” Swain wrote in his blog, Weather West. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain noted that El Niño may already be exerting some influence on global circulation patterns, but it is also arriving amid some anomalous conditions such as an enhanced subtropical jet stream and record-breaking oceanic warmth. Red shading: warmer than average temperaturesīlue shading: colder than average temperatures One of the coolest spots (relative to average) over the last 6 months has been across the western United States. Warmer winter temperatures can also affect crops in California and other agricultural regions, particularly crops that require a higher chill during winter dormancy, such as pistachios, cherries and pears.Įarlier bud-breaks and flowering, longer growing seasons and more pressure from agricultural pests are also possible, researchers said. Median losses from the incoming event could be at least $3 trillion by 2029, the study found. Now it could give way to El Niño.īut El Niño can also have knock-on effects in California and across the world, including economic and agricultural effects.Ī study published last month found that the 1982-83 El Niño contributed to an estimated $4.1 trillion in global income losses in the five years that followed, and the 1997-98 El Niño contributed to an estimated $5.7 trillion in losses. The rare ‘triple dip’ of La Niña was the first time in the 21st century the system appeared three years in a row. ![]() “That will peak towards the end of this year, and how big that is is going to have a big impact on the following year’s statistics.California Odds of El Niño returning to California are increasing. “We anticipate that 2024 is going to be an even warmer year because we’re going to be starting off with that El Niño event,” Schmidt said. Several days in July were the planet’s warmest in modern records kept by two climate agencies in the US and Europe.Īll of that heat is adding up, and Schmidt said he believes there is a 50-50 chance that 2023 will be the warmest year on record.īut, he added, it is likely that a sweltering 2024 will exceed it, precisely because of El Niño’s influence. Last month was the hottest June on record for the planet, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported earlier this month. Until we stop doing that, temperatures will keep on rising.” … The reason why we think that’s going to continue is because we continue to put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. ![]() “What we’re seeing is the overall warmth pretty much everywhere – particularly in the oceans. “It’s really only just emerged, and so what we’re seeing is not really due to that El Niño,” Schmidt told reporters. Long-lost Greenland ice core suggests potential for disastrous sea level rise Melting ice on a small tundra pond in Greenland.
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